🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still