Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
